Roderich Egeler
President of the Federal Statistical Office
Press release February 5, 2010
Representative electoral statistics of the 2009 Bundestag Election
As reported by the Federal Returning Officer, the results of the representative electoral statistics of the election to the 17th German Bundestag on 27 September 2009 have become available today. Voter behaviour by sex and age groups, and the structure of voters and non-voters can now be analysed for the Federation and the Länder.
Nearly one third of the persons entitled to vote are over 60 years
A total of 62.2 million citizens were entiteld to vote in the 2009 Bundestag Election, more than half of them 30 to 59 years old. In the generation aged 60 years and over, 20.4 million persons were eligible to vote, that is almost one third of all voters. This group was nearly twice as large as the younger generation below the age of 30, which accounted for one sixth of those entitled to vote (10.2 million persons).
60 to 69-year-olds have the highest voter turnout, 21 to 24-year-olds the lowest
Voter turnout stood at 70.8% and was 6.9 percentage points down from the 2005 Election, lower than in any Bundestag election before.
As in former Bundestag elections, voter turnout was again below average in the younger age groups in 2009. Consequently, the potential influence of young persons entitled to vote is weakened disproportionately as compared to that of older voters. The voter turnout of 21 to 24-year-olds stood at 59.1% and was again the lowest of all age groups. Women and men in eastern Germany aged 21 to 24 years had a particularly low voter turnout of 52.7% and 53.1%.
Voter turnout rose continuously with age, up to the 60 to 69-year-olds: 80.0% of them voted in the 2009 Bundestag Election, which is the highest percentage of all age groups. Amounting to 82.1%, the voter turnout of men aged 60 to 69 years in western Germany was markedly above average, women belonging to the same age group in western Germany accounted for as much as 81.1%.
On the whole, voter turnout differed only slightly between the sexes.
CDU achieved best election result in senior citizens group, more backing from women
The strongest party in all age groups was the CDU. It achieved its best result of 34.4% in the group of voters from the age of 60. The party obtained a higher share of women’s votes (29.6%) than of men’s (24.8%). Compared with 2005, the CDU obtained an additional 1.6 percentage points with women and lost 2.7 percentage points with men.
SPD loses most votes with young voters
The SPD had to take the greatest losses regarding votes cast by young people up to the age of 24 years. Here it lost more than half of its share of secondary votes (–18.7 percentage points). At the 2005 Bundestag Election, it had got the most support from that age group. The SPD also lost votes in all age groups that follow, but losses decreased continuously and amounted to –6.8 percentage points in the age group of persons from the age of 60. As a consequence, the SPD obtained its highest share of votes from senior citizens (27.3%).
Gains in all age groups for FDP, DIE LINKE and GRÜNE, losses for the CSU
FDP, DIE LINKE and GRÜNE managed to increase their shares of votes in all age groups. Gains of the FDP ranged from 3.4 percentage points among voters from the age of 60 to 6.7 percentage points among those between 35 and 44. DIE LINKE achieved its best result of 15.2% among voters aged 45 to 59 years. The GRÜNE were particularly successful when it came to young and first voters below the age of 25 years. Here they obtained a share of second votes amounting to 15.4%, while with 5.0% of voters over 60 they were way below the overall result. Like the CDU, the CSU achieved its best result in the age group of voters over 60 (8.0%). Compared with 2005, however, it had to take minor losses in all age groups.
Vote splitting reaches new high
The extent of vote splitting, which means casting one’s first and second votes for different parties, reached a new high of 26.4% at the 2009 Bundestag Election.
When one looks at the casting of first votes with given second votes, voters of the FDP split their vote most often; more than 55% gave their first vote to another party’s candidate for direct election, mostly a CDU or CSU candidate. In turn, almost 18% of voters who cast their first vote for the CDU gave their second vote to the FDP.
Voters who cast their second vote for the GRÜNE also often directly supported candidates of another party with their first votes, mostly candidates of the SPD.
Contrary to the general trend, vote splitting declined with the voters of DIE LINKE as compared to 2005.
Above-average share of persons voting CDU, CSU and SPD among senior citizens
The results of the representative electoral statistics also inform about the demographic composition of the electorate of individual parties and give indications as to how far parties managed to mobilise their potential voters. The electorate of the Union parties (CDU and CSU) consisted of an overproportionate share of older voters from the age of 60, with the trend continuing upwards. Compared with the age structure of all persons entitled to vote, those aged 18 to 59 years were underrepresented among the electorate of the CDU/CSU. The age structure of the SPD’s electorate changed fundamentally against 2005. The high percentage of older persons was striking: well above 41% of SPD voters were 60 years and over, in 2005 it had been only almost 33%.
Marked differences in the electorates of “smaller“ parties
The age structure of the FDP’s electorate was closest to the demographic composition of all eligible voters. With the party DIE LINKE, the age group of those aged 45 to 59 years was represented overproportionally. The main electoral potential of the GRÜNE is among the young: at the 2009 Election, about half of the electorate of the GRÜNE was younger than 45 years.
Comprehensive publication of the Federal Returning Officer on the representative electoral statistics
The above and other results from the representative electoral statistics and extensive tables and charts are contained in Number 4 “Wahlbeteiligung und Stimmabgabe der Männer und Frauen nach Altersgruppen (Electoral participation of and votes cast by men and women by age groups)“ of the publications issued by the Federal Returning Officer on the 2009 Bundestag Election. This publication in the German language may be downloaded free of charge as a pdf file from the website of the Federal Returning Officer.
The data is also available for free as a xls file on the website of the Federal Returning Officer.
At a price of EUR 18.– the publication may be obtained from the booksellers or direct from the Publication Service of the Federal Statistical Office.
Legal and methodological bases of the representative electoral statistics
The representative electoral statistics of the 2009 Bundestag Election is based on the election results obtained in 2,861 of the altogether 90,000 polling districts. Further information is provided by the brief description (in German) entitled “Rechtliche und methodische Grundlagen der repräsentativen Wahlstatistik” (Legal and methodological bases of the representative electoral statistics), which may be downloaded as pdf.
For further information please contact:
Manfred Thoma,
tel: (+49-611) 75-2012,
e-mail: bundeswahlleiter@destatis.de